TOP FIVE MARGINAL SEATS AFTER REDISTRIBUTION
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HASTINGS - Melbourne's outer southeast
Neale Burgess, Liberal, 1.1 per cent margin in 2018, 0.01 per cent Labor after redistribution
Former Dancing with the Stars judge and Strictly Ballroom star Paul Mercurio could enter Victorian parliament as Labor's candidate for the Mornington Peninsula seat. Liberal MP Neale Burgess has held it since 2006 but is retiring after suffering a 6.6 per cent swing in 2018. Briony Hutton, once an electorate officer for former health minister Greg Hunt, has been preselected as his replacement.
CAULFIELD - Melbourne's southeast
David Southwick, Liberal, 0.3 per cent margin in 2018, 0.2 per cent Labor after redistribution
Deputy Victorian Liberal leader David Southwick came within 204 votes of losing the seat in 2018 but wouldn't have survived under the revised boundaries. The seat has been conservative-held since its creation in 1927 but is under threat from Labor candidate Lior Harel and teal independent hopeful Nomi Kaltmann.
SANDRINGHAM - Melbourne's southeast
Brad Roswell, Liberal, 0.6 per cent in 2018, 0.4 per cent after redistribution
The Liberal-held seat is within the federal electorate of Goldstein, where teal independent Zoe Daniel stunned Tim Wilson in May. Brad Roswell is also facing an independent challenge from former Bayside mayor Clarke Martin, who has nominated after two previous failed tilts.
MILDURA - Victoria's northwest
Ali Cupper, independent, 0.3 per cent margin in 2018, 0.4 per cent after redistribution
Independent MP Ali Cupper snared the Victorian Mallee seat from the Nationals four years ago with Labor preferences. The Nationals have preselected former Swan Hill mayor Jade Benham, while local police sergeant Paul Matheson is running for the Liberals. No Labor candidate will run.
BRIGHTON - Melbourne's southeast
James Newbury, Liberal, 1.1 per cent margin in 2018, 0.5 per cent after redistribution
Opposition environment spokesman James Newbury would keep his seat if 2018 results were replicated but community independent Felicity Frederico is hoping to throw a spanner in the works. The former Bayside mayor quit the Liberal party after losing a preselection race against Mr Newbury last year.
FIVE TO WATCH
HAWTHORN - Melbourne's inner east
John Kennedy, Labor, 0.4 per cent margin in 2018, 0.6 per cent after redistribution
While Labor MP John Kennedy is the incumbent, Hawthorn is increasingly shaping as a two-horse race between Liberal candidate John Pesutto and teal challenger Melissa Lowe. Mr Pesutto replaced former premier Ted Baillieu in 2014 but lost the seat four years later. The seat partly overlaps the federal electorate of Kooyong, where independent Monique Ryan ousted treasurer Josh Frydenberg in May.
MELTON - Melbourne's outer west
Steve McGhie, Labor, 4.3 per cent margin in 2018, five per cent after redistribution
The Liberals aren't the only major party facing an independent threat, with Labor MP Steve McGhie at risk of losing to a prominent local. Dr Ian Birchall finished third in 2018 and is expected to poll strongly again on a health-oriented platform, while former state MP Graham Watt carries the hopes of the Liberals. The seat has been held by Labor since its creation in 1992.
RICHMOND - Melbourne's inner east
Richard Wynne, Labor, 5.5 per cent margin in 2018, 5.8 per cent after redistribution
The Greens want to flip this seat along with Albert Park and Northcote. They've pinned their hopes on former Yarra City Council mayor Gabrielle de Vietri. She will run against former Labor staffer Lauren O'Dwyer, picked to replace retiring former planning minister Richard Wynne.
BASS - Melbourne's outer southeast
Jordan Crugnale, Labor, 2.4 per cent margin in 2018, 0.7 per cent Liberal after redistribution
The boundaries redistribution has turned Bass into a notionally Liberal seat. Labor's Jordan Crugnale switched the seat from blue to red in 2018 with a 6.9 per cent swing and will need another swing towards her to keep it. The Liberals are desperate to claw it back and have preselected Aaron Brown, the son of former state party leader Alan Brown.
BENAMBRA - Victoria's northeast
Bill Tilley, Liberal, 2.4 per cent margin in 2018, 2.6 per cent after redistribution
Pollsters believe Benambra is winnable for independent candidate Jacqui Hawkins. She's running in the colour of yellow instead of teal in her bid to unseat shadow cabinet minister Bill Tilley. The northeast border seat takes in some of the federal electorate of Indi, which community independents Cathy McGowan and Helen Haynes have made their own.
Australian Associated Press
