Inland areas of the Illawarra, Shoalhaven and Southern Highlands will be most affected by Friday's dry heat, which will cause the dangerous fire conditions across the region to return.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
A late southerly change, not predicted to hit until at least 10 or 11 o'clock at night, could also create difficult conditions across the Green Wattle Creek, Currowan and Morton fire grounds.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Jake Phillips said the Illawarra was "looking at a pretty warm day overall", with at least very high, possibly severe, fire danger across the region.
However, there could be a big difference between coastal and inland areas.
"The coastal fridge will get a north-easterly breeze, which will keep locations right on the coast a little bit cooler, but as soon as you get away from the coast you're looking at temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s," he said.
"The winds inland will be from the north-west, and these are usually the drier winds. That means the relative humidity is lower and that's one of the ingredients that drives the fire danger rating. We look at wind speed, temperature and humidity. It doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get fires, but if they do occur in that area they are more likely to spread quickly."
The BOM issued a severe wind warning ahead of the late southerly change, which will lead to cooler weather at the weekend.
"The change is going to be quite late, probably reaching the southern part of the Illawarra [near Nowra] in the later part of the evening and it will then move through fair swiftly over the next hour," Mr Phillips said.
"It will be quite a vigorous change and will be very gusty along the coastal fringe."
Since last Saturday, firefighters have been taking advantage of cooler temperatures and the small amount of rain which as fallen across the fire grounds, but have warned that residents in affected areas must remain vigilant as the heat returns.
The northern part of the Currowan fire continues to burn in Kangaroo Valley, with residents between there and North Nowra advised to stay alert throughout Friday.
The newer Morton fire, which spread rapidly into the Southern Highlands on Saturday, is burning in Bundanoon, north of the Shoalhaven River. Residents in Bundanoon, Wingello, Penrose, Exeter, Avoca, Fitzroy Falls and surrounding areas are advised to monitor conditions.
The Green Wattle Creek fire continues to burn near Wombeyan Caves and Bullio, west of the Hume Highway and in the areas north and west of Mittagong.
With information likely to change rapidly if the fires flare up, residents are advice to heed only the most up-to-date alerts from the NSW RFS Fires Near Me website.
2019 officially the hottest, driest year on record
Meanwhile on Thursday, the BOM released its annual climate statement for 2019, showing it was both the warmest and driest year on record for Australia.
The yearly summary shows the average mean temperature in 2019 was 1.52 °C above average, making it the warmest on record since consistent national temperature records began in 1910 and surpassing the previous record in 2013 of 1.33 °C above average.
Meanwhile the national average rainfall total in 2019 was 277 mm, the lowest since consistent national records began in 1900. The previous record low was 314 mm set during the Federation drought in 1902.
BOM head of climate monitoring Dr Karl Braganza said the record warm and dry year was one of the key factors influencing recent and current fire conditions in large parts of the country.
"January last year was the warmest month Australia has ever recorded, while just a few weeks ago in December, we saw the Australia-wide record hottest daily average maximum temperature broken multiple days in a row," he said.
"At the same time, rainfall deficiencies across large parts of eastern Australia have continued to increase, unfortunately exacerbating both drought conditions and the current bushfires."
The BOM also says rainfall for the coming months is expected to be average to below average in the east, while temperatures are likely to remain warmer than average over the rest of summer.
"Unfortunately the outlook is not indicating a widespread return to wetter than average conditions over drought and fire affected parts of eastern Australia," Dr Braganza said.
"But with the likely return of the monsoon by mid-January for northern Australia, it's raises the chances that we could see some periods of higher rainfall move south in the coming months.
"It's important the community remains vigilant to the risk of more heat and fire days this summer, particularly given how dry the country has been over the past 12 months."
Kate McIlwain
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
For more than a decade, I've helped the Illawarra Mercury set the news agenda across the region. Currently I'm the paper's health reporter - covering the stories of Illawarra workers and residents in the wake of a global pandemic and at a time where our health systems are stretched to the limit.
