With the Oscars bruised by the damaging #OscarsSoWhite scandal, the honour roll at the Globes makes for a colourblind contrast, with strong plays from Ruth Negga (Loving), Dev Patel (Lion) and Moonlight's Mahershala Ali and Naomie Harris.

They are also easily the most difficult award to predict, as they are voted by an infamously eccentric coterie of 90-odd members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

That makes them more easily moved to whim, more reactive to media noise around a film or performance, and more receptive to emerging talent and new television shows.

In television drama, for example, a hotly contested category here and at the annual peer-voted Emmy Awards, the Globes have given four of five nominations to new shows. The Emmys are rarely so generous.

Australians in contention

Two of our acclaimed exports – Joel Edgerton and Nicole Kidman – are nominated for best actor (drama) and best supporting actress in the film categories.

Edgerton's nomination is for his work in Loving and lands in a reasonably open field, with Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen, Denzel Washington and Casey Affleck, who is the main competition.

Kidman's nod, for her work in Lion, puts her in a much tougher category, up against Viola Davis, Naomie Harris, Octavia Spencer and Michelle Williams, all serious contenders.

And actor-director Mel Gibson has been nominated in the best director category, for his film Hacksaw Ridge, which is also up for best picture (drama).

Who will win?

Let's start with the obvious. La La Land will win best picture (comedy/musical). And while we'd like to think Edgerton has a fighting chance, if he doesn't win his category, it will almost certainly go to Affleck for Manchester by the Sea.

In the film categories, best actress (drama) is going to Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Amy Adams for Arrival or Ruth Negga for Loving. We can debate all we like but the smart money is one of those three.

Ryan Gosling is a likely contender for best actor (musical/comedy) as is Emma Stone for best actress (musical/comedy). Both are in La La Land, which is the film, come next week, that will be on everyone's lips after it "sweeps" the awards.

Gosling's win comes at the cost of some great performances, notably Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins and Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool. Deadpool, in particular, was a brilliant film, but will struggle to cut through in some tight categories.

Stone's win is even crueller, coming at the expense of stunning performances from Annette Bening and Meryl Streep.

The best director field is a little more open, though Gibson has fairly tough competition from Damien Chazelle, who directed La La Land, and Barry Jenkins on Moonlight. They're the two to beat and if La La Land sweeps the night, Chazelle will almost certainly win.

In the television categories, Game of Thrones goes into best television series (drama) as the strongest contender, but it has formidable competition from Stranger Things, The Crown, This Is Us and Westworld.

All four are new, and all four, most notably The Crown and Stranger Things which won almost universal acclaim from television critics, are legitimate contenders.

Best television series (comedy/musical) is a more established field, with Atlanta the only new addition. Black-ish, Mozart in the Jungle, Transparent and Veep have had a ride on the carousel before and Veep is the obvious pick if you're going on past form.

Best television mini-series or TV movie again has some strong players, notably the critically acclaimed The Night Manager. But the obvious tussle will be between The People vs OJ Simpson, and the one that really ought to win, HBO's brilliant The Night Of.

And while Claire Foy's performance in The Crown was stunning – no nod for Matt Smith? Come on HFPA, lift your game – the real contender there is surely John Lithgow. He's up for best supporting actor in the television categories for his portrayal of Churchill.

Who's been snubbed?

Who ought to be there is a list almost as long as who is, though it's fair to say the Golden Globes don't have a monopoly on getting it wrong; there is an embarrassment of screen riches, big and small, these days, and huge slabs of it fall through the cracks unacknowledged.

Matthew Rhys and Keri Russell managed to get nominations in the television acting categories but their series, The Americans, struggled. Like The Good Wife, it has spent much of its life cruelly ignored. No big surprise there: category congestion is an issue and particularly in drama it's a harsh cull to make the final half-dozen.

Empire also didn't make the cut, but that's less surprising. What started as one of the most promising new network dramas quickly went the route of Desperate Housewives, mired in unpredictable storytelling and an anyone-famous-gets-a-ride approach to guest stars and cameo appearances.

So, where was Jeffrey Morgan's nomination for The Walking Dead? Or Louie Anderson's for Baskets? Easily two of the best performances of the year, neither properly recognised. And where is Silicon Valley? Mozart in the Jungle is barely a comedy, and choosing it over Silicon Valley makes no sense.

Mercifully, This Is Us made the cut, plus there were nominations for two of its cast, Mandy Moore and Chrissy Metz. But no love for Milo Ventimiglia? That feels like an oversight. Ditto Outlander, which didn't make the cut for best drama, and where was Sam Heughan's nomination? Co-star Caitriona Balfe got one. It's quite outlandish.

The 74th Golden Globe Awards ceremony is in Los Angeles on January 8 and will air in Australia on Foxtel.