Premier Mike Baird has shown he's crazy, brave or very determined in forging ahead with his unpopular plan to rationalise the state's councils. But not so crazy as to forge ahead in the most vulnerable Coalition seats.

In announcing plans to turn 45 NSW councils into 19 bigger councils,  Baird is doing what he believes in, in the face of a gathering campaign throughout the state. He has not been deterred by court challenges, rallies, petitions, or even submissions to the Boundaries Commission inquiry, which ran heavily against mergers.

But Mike Baird is still a politician and Thursday's announcement is undeniably political.

Several contentious mergers are either on hold or dropped and, surprise, surprise, some are in Coalition marginal federal seats, particularly National seats, where federal pollies are feeling the heat.

For example, the merger of Kiama and Shoalhaven, which was deeply unpopular in Kiama, has been dropped. The two council areas overlap with Gilmore (margin 3.8 per cent).

In Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce's seat of New England (margin 19.6 per cent), where Joyce is facing a challenge from the previous federal member, independent Tony Windsor, the hated proposal for Tamworth and Walcha to merge has been dropped. This is despite a recommendation from the delegate of the commission in its favour and estimated savings of  $5.8 million to $10.3 million during 10 years.

When asked whether Joyce had been in their ear, the Premier and Deputy Premier Troy Grant evaded. Grant  talks to Barnaby all the time, it seems.

Walcha, where Joyce played footy, could be still merged with Armidale-Dumaresq, Guyra and Uralla but conveniently, this proposal is still being considered. What's the bet it's after July 2?

Also on hold, for no particular reason, is the merger of Newcastle and Port Stephens, and that of Maitland and Dungog. Both were recommended by their delegates. They overlap with Paterson held by the Liberals' Bob Baldwin, who is retiring. A redistribution means it's now a notional Labor seat by 0.4 per cent.

The unpopular merger of Bathurst and Oberon, which overlaps with Calare, held by the Nationals, is thankfully held up by court action. Despite a margin of 15 per cent to the Nationals, this seat could be vulnerable from the "tree change" factor.  Also held up in the legal process are mergers in Prime MInister Malcolm Turnbull's seat of Wentworth (18.9 per cent); in Liberal Trent Zimmerman's seat of North Sydney (10 per cent)  and in Liberal Craig Laundy's marginal seat of Reid (3.4 per cent).

In Baird's own neck of the woods, he's done an about-face on his earlier plan for two councils on the northern beaches. Tony Abbott,  in the seat of Warringah (15.9 per cent), will be relieved because those in Warringah Council faced  obliteration;  the new candidate for McKellar,  which spans Pittwater and part of Warringah councils, Jason Falinski (18.8 per cent) less so. The good burghers of Pittwater hated Warringah so much they seceded in the 1980s.

Baird is banking on the mergers being history by the time state elections roll around in 2019.   But that means getting any job losses well and truly over.  Victoria's Jeff Kennett has attributed his loss in 1999 in part to his deeply unpopular council mergers in regional Victoria.

There will be a long and messy tail to this policy, particularly as council elections have now been postponed until September 2017.

Crazy, brave or a shrewd gamble on reform? Only time will tell.