American research that suggests large parts of the floodplain east of Nowra, Bomaderry and Berry could be inundated if climate change goes unchecked is sobering but unlikely to trigger an exodus to higher ground.
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The global mapping project, carried out by the US group Climate Central, is designed to focus attention on climate change ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris later this month.
However, it should start a serious conversation about future planning in low-lying parts of the Shoalhaven.
That conversation won’t be easy because so much money is tied up in real estate with views of and in close proximity to the sea. The last time restrictions on building within areas predicted to be affected by sea level rises, the outcry came fast and furious. Initial restrictions were - excuse the pun – watered down.
But according to this latest mapping, even with its long time frame, we will eventually be in for a very damp time.
Already this year, we have had a taste of what rising sea levels might deliver. The August flood emergency saw large tracts of low-lying land inundated, including towns such as Sussex Inlet and Lake Conjola, and suburbs such as Sanctuary Point.
That was the result of an east coast low pressure system, an event likely to increase in frequency as the planet warms.
This latest mapping paints a grim picture.
At a two degree rise, Greenwell Point, Numbaa, Terara, Pyree, Brundee, eastern parts of Worrigee and parts of East Nowra would be under water, as would a large tract of land from Bolong Road, east of Bomaderry through Meroo Meadow and Jaspers Brush.
Berry would also suffer inundation as would parts of Shoalhaven Heads.
At four degrees , the inundation would almost reach the Princes Highway at Nowra.
Former Nowra woman, Jacqui Fetchet, who will attend the Paris conference as a youth delegate, is hopeful the UN gathering will spur serious action on behalf of communities, business and governments to take serious steps to address climate change.
She says the debate has moved on from whether climate change is real or not. Now, the discussion is about the extent of it.
We tend to agree and think the best time to start tackling the issue is now.