Greenhouse gas emissions from Australia's main sources of energy use jumped by almost 10 million tonnes in the first year after the end of the carbon price, making it harder for the Abbott government to meet its goals of reducing carbon pollution.
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Total annualised carbon emissions in the 2014-15 financial year from the National Electricity Market (NEM) supplying about 80 per cent of the Australian consumers, all petroleum products consumed nationally and natural gas use in south-east Australia, rose by 9.6 million tonnes, or 3.3 per cent, consultancy Pitt & Sherry said.
The contribution from the NEM alone rose by 6.4 million tonnes in the year as brown and black coal use in the power sector jumped, while transport-sourced emissions rose 1.8 million tonnes, and gas for use other than in electricity generation added 1.4 million tonnes, the firm's latest Cedex report found.
The rise in the emissions intensity of the power sector had been partly masked by declining demand for electricity. This trend has now reversed, at least in the NEM, and that will lead to further emissions increases, Hugh Saddler, Pitt & Sherry's principal consultant, said.
"It's obviously going to come from coal-fired power because there are no new wind farms about to come on line," Dr Saddler said.
Hydropower output has flat-lined lately after a steep retreat following the Abbott government's repeal of the carbon tax in July 2014.
The share of the NEM held by gas continues to slide as the fuel is diverted to more lucrative overseas contracts.
By last month, gas supplied 11.1 per cent of the NEM, down from 13.2 per cent at the end of 2014. Wind reached a record share of 5.6 per cent last month, while hydro supplied 7 per cent.
The share of black and brown coal-fired plant was steady at 76.3 per cent up from a 73 per cent share at the end of June 2014 when the carbon price was abolished.
The government has pledged to cut carbon emissions by 5 per cent on 2000 levels by 2020 and about 19 per cent by 2030.
Fairfax Media sought comment from the office of federal Environment Minister Greg Hunt.
"It's clear that putting a price on [carbon] cuts pollution and speeds up our transition to clean energy," Larissa Waters, the deputy Greens leader, said.
"The Abbott government's plan pays polluters with taxpayer money and lets big businesses, especially mining companies, pollute even more than they do today without any penalty," Senator Waters said.
"We are paying big polluters wads of cash for absolutely no benefit to our way of life."
The government this week released its long-awaited safeguard guidelines aimed at discouraging companies from increasing emissions even as it pays $2.55 billion from its emissions reduction fund to curb pollution.
The Cedex survey covers about 84 per cent of the energy sector, based on previous official greenhouse gas inventory figures.
The most recent quarterly report by the government on Australia's emissions showed total pollution rose 0.3 per cent in the year to March 2015 to 545.1 million tonnes.
