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Tony Abbott's battle-scarred government has stormed back into contention on the back of a softer and "fairer" federal budget which has dissolved voter anger, papered over last year's broken promises, and increased the prospects of an early election in 2015.
In a stunning reversal of fortunes, the government and the opposition are now dead-even at 50/50 after preferences and Mr Abbott has shot into the lead as the preferred choice as prime minister ahead of Labor's Bill Shorten.
At 44/39, it is the first time Mr Abbott has led on that index since April 2014 – that is, before the disastrous 2014 budget – and the first time the government has been in a potentially election winning position since February of that year.
It comes after a 2015 budget which was transparently designed to rebuild shattered trust with middle-Australia by placating small businesses and families and prioritising electoral concerns over worsening fiscal challenges.
In the first Fairfax-Ipsos survey since that voter-friendly economic blueprint was handed down on Tuesday, the Coalition's primary support has jumped 4 percentage points to a healthy 43 per cent, while Labor's primary vote has gone the other way falling by 3 points to be just 35 – a mere two percentage points above its 2013 nadir in which it was hounded from office.
Mr Abbott's approval rating has improved by 8 percentage points since April to be sitting at minus 8 – only slightly lower than Mr Shorten's which has worsened to be minus 4.
The result vindicates those within the Liberal partyroom who pushed for a radical change of direction away from hardline policies, and were prepared to change leaders if necessary to bring it about.
The more "political" second budget all but obliterated the excesses of 2014, playing down a still active $80 billion cut to states for schools and hospitals over the next decade, while dispensing with planned pension cuts from 2017, a harsh six month waiting period for the dole for under 30s, and minimising other negatives.
It also contained a $10 billion package for families in the form of increased childcare assistance, and tax breaks for small business, including a new instant asset write-off of 100 per cent for all new equipment purchases of items up to a maximum of $20,000.
Eight out of 10 voters think the business concessions are a good idea and a surprisingly high 22 per cent say they will personally use the provisions.
But voters remain opposed to the plan to cut Family Tax Benefits even though the government has made that a condition of the new childcare spending.
Voters have given the budget a solid tick of approval, with more than half of those polled (52 per cent) declaring themselves satisfied and a third of voters saying they are not – 35 per cent, which is also the same as Labor's primary vote base.
That gives the budget a net satisfaction rating of 17 per cent – a marked improvement on last year's "toxic" budget which single-handedly skewered the Abbott's government's popularity, breaking trust and propelling Labor into a commanding lead.
The first budget achieved a net satisfaction rating of minus 32 per cent – the worst rating of any budget survey by Fairfax since 1996. And while last year's budget achieved an abysmal fairness rating of minus 30, budget 2015 has reversed that with a rating in the positive of 19 per cent.
On a two-party-preferred basis, using the flow of preferences at the 2013 poll, the two sides are now locked at 50/50. They had been as low as 44/56 in Labor's favour immediately after the 2014 budget and had not achieved parity or better at any time since.
It represents a dramatic post-budget lift in support for the government which had trailed 46/54 as recently as last month.
The nationwide statistically weighted phone poll of 1403 voters was taken from Thursday, May 14 to Saturday, May 16.
While the findings still point to a 3.5 per cent swing against the coalition compared to the 2013 election, it is the best result for the Abbott government in more than a year.
Mr Abbott has come under some pressure to consider an early election this year to capitalise on the public support while it is there, rather than risk support ebbing away.
Proponents of the early election option say the government has effectively been forced into a pre-election budget a whole year earlier than planned thanks to the depths of its problems from last year. They say therefore, that Mr Abbott has limited scope to offer any new spending in the 2016 budget.
There are also fears that some of the more heroic economic forecasts used to underpin the deficit reduction path outlined last week will have been exposed as unrealistic by late 2016 when the election would fall due in any event.
Both sides of politics are furiously organising their affairs in order to be ready for an early election, but are said to be some months away from a state of readiness.
Mr Shorten, who delivered a heavily future-focused budget reply speech on Thursday which was criticised for its lack of alternative savings measures, begins a four-city budget blitz from Monday taking in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Sydney.
"It's clear this year's Budget was last year's Budget re-packaged for an election," Mr Shorten told Fairfax Media.
