First and foremost, they should note the disastrous polls returned for the past 14 months. Despite what they think of their leader, the Australian people are not happy with him. Time and again, his approval rating suggests he is unelectable.

To draw a biblical analogy, Mr Abbott will need a convincing road to Damascus conversion to turn that opinion around. Much attention has been placed upon his most recent gaffe – the knighting of Prince Phillip – but the dissatisfaction predates that.

The government as a whole will need to set a new direction and convince the Australian electorate to join it. So far, the government has manifestly failed to do that. Its first budget hit a raw nerve by assaulting the Australian sense of fair play. Cuts to health, education and welfare were interpreted as shifting the burden of addressing the deficit onto the shoulders of those who least afford it.

The narrative being broadcast by the supporters of Mr Abbott – that the electorate does not want a return to the chaos under Labor – ignores one fundamental difference. When Kevin Rudd was deposed by his own party, he was still popular with voters and that led in part to the backlash against Julia Gillard. That and the broken promise about the carbon tax.

Tony Abbott does not enjoy that popularity and has chalked up a few broken promises of his own. The legacy of that is reflected in polls that say the government would be tossed out if an election were held now.

The choice for government MPs – including Ann Sudmalis here in Gilmore, who has the thinnest of margins – is stark: either put faith in a leader held in very poor esteem by the electorate or chance a new leader, who might be in a better position to turn their fortune around.