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Aussie dollar hits 24-year high

19 May, 2008 11:13 AM
Australians travelling abroad can rejoice: the Aussie dollar hit a 24-year high this morning.

The strengthened Aussie, which has doubled in value against the US dollar in seven years and consistently defied expectations of levelling off, means Australians will get more for their dollars in imports.

Those travelling abroad can expect their cash to stretch further as well.

At 10.20am, the Australian dollar was trading at 95.45 US cents. The Australian dollar had peaked at 95.71 US cents up more than one US cent from Friday's close of 94.34 US cents.

This was its highest since March 20, 1984, when the domestic unit reached 95.73 US cents.

"If you're planning to go overseas, now is the time do it,'' said Amy Auster, head of international economics at ANZ.

Even if you only have a trip on the horizon, you can take advantage of the strong Aussie dollar, she said.

''If you're planning to buy foreign currency, buy it now,'' she said.

During the offshore weekend session, the local unit traded between a low of 94.31 US cents and a high of 95.67 US cents.

The Australian dollar gained strength after the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May, out on Friday, produced its weakest reading since June 1980.

The monthly index fell 3.1 points to 59.5.

The Aussie's rise has analysts reconsidering their expectations for the dollar as well.

''In May 2001, the Australian dollar traded at a record low of US$0.4773,'' wrote Stephen Koukoulas, currency strategist at TD Securities. The currency is now double that.

Back in 2001, Mr Koukoulas noted, interest rates were being cut, commodity prices were sluggish, and the Howard Government had delivered an uninspiring budget.

"Exactly seven years on, commodities are booming, the RBA has hiked rates in the middle of a credit crisis, the government has delivered a reasonably sensible budget and everyone loves the Australian dollar,'' he wrote.

The changes in fundamentals have put wind at the back of the Australian dollar even as the US dollar struggles to retain power.

For Australian consumers, that means it's a good time to buy imports goods or to travel. Especially when buying or exchanging into US dollars.

"The positive influences have swamped the negative factors and there remains a risk the Australian dollar being supercharged to $US1 and beyond,'' he wrote.

This morning's 24-year high comes less than two weeks since Westpac forecast the Australian dollar would reach $US1.01 by the start of next year as interest rates in Australia stay high and the benefits of the resource boom remain strong in the economy.

Although not willing to commit to a date for achieving parity, HSBC head of global markets, Tony Cripps, said there was "no reason it couldn't trade through parity".

The current conditions are similar to the 1970s, the last time the Australian dollar traded over $US1.

"Just because $US1 seems big, the Australian dollar has been there before," Mr Cripps said.

"The trend is definitely going to be staying up," he said. "The interest rate differential against the US is the highest since the late 1980s and early 1990s."

However, Mr Cripps noted that back in the 1970s, the Australian dollar wasn't free floating; its exchange rate was fixed.

Economist Damien Boey at Credit Suisse said he thought the Australian dollar can stay high "and possibly rise further" if China can keep inflation under control.

"A lot more tightening is needed by Chinese authorities to cause commodity prices and the Australian dollar to fall outright," he said.

"Some of this tightening will be imposed upon the Chinese economy by (developed economies) as the credit crunch affects demand for Chinese exports and investment flows into China," he said.

"But Chinese authorities themselves have a role to play in keeping a lid on commodity prices, particularly as inflation is now a problem.

"From the RBA's perspective, the strong Australian dollar is probably a favourable development at the margin as it will help contain imported goods price inflation."

The higher Australian dollar makes Australian manufacturing exports more expensive for customers overseas. The pinch has been felt by the Australian car industry, which is seeking relief from the government amid a rockier market.

The industry has called on the Federal Government to boost its main assistance program, pause tariffs on imported cars and put more money into its $500 million green car innovation fund, The Australian Financial Review reported today.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), which represents Ford, Holden and Toyota, said that while the market share held by Australian manufacturers had fallen to about 19%, with the "right policy setting'' the industry could meet the challenges it faced.

FCAI chief executive Andrew McKellar told the AFR "the review comes at a critical time for local car makers".

"They've had to contend with rising fuel prices, the strong Australian dollar and significant changes to buying patterns," Mr McKellar said.

But Ms Auster of ANZ said several Australian exporters "have been increasingly used to this high Australian dollar environment" and have hedged their exposure to it.

The trend has limited the impact of the surging Australian dollar on profits of non-commodities exporters.

However, Ms Auster does not share the view that the Australian dollar will hit parity or exceed it.

''The Aussie dollar would have to break through quite a lot of resistance to get through to parity,'' she said. ''There are a few things that could create that momentum. But a number have already happened and the breakthrough hasn't occurred," she said.

As a high-yielding currency, the Australian dollar is popular as a speculative buy in the global currency markets.

Lately, there has been an increase in that sort of investing in the Australian dollar, and yet, it's still at 95 US cents.

High commodity prices, another factor, have failed to catapult the Aussie to parity.

A 70% increase in the price of iron ore, recently agreed upon by the Chinese and their Brazilian suppliers, has been factored into the global commodity market.

That jump in the cost of ore has also been priced into the Australian dollar.

Reserve Bank interest rate movements are yet to play out, Ms Auster said.

''So far the RBA has clearly stated it is expecting the economy to slow down,'' she said, but the RBA is comfortable with rates where they are for now.

Taken together the three factors have already been priced into the Australian dollar and it has not yet pushed past $US1. For this reason, achieving parity is ultimately unlikely, Ms Auster said.

Jeff Oughton, head of Australian economics at National Australia Bank, said the Australian dollar's latest price spike has been more symptomatic of larger trends in global risk appetites and commodity prices.

"It's a reflection of what's going on in the economy," he said. "At the margin, it's part of the structural change of the resources boom that's on the way."

"It's because of very strong growth in India and China. They have a hunger for red gold (iron ore) and black gold (oil)."

Also the financial turbulence that has roiled markets since August when the sub-prime lending crisis first emerged in the US has settled down somewhat.

That has increased the risk appetite, which has benefited the Australian dollar.

"That's a reflection that our part of the world is very strong," he said.

Mr Oughton said an eventual rise in interest rates would slow domestic spending, and commodity prices will have peaked.

"It really reflects the Australian world is in for another reasonable year," he said, noting there was another $40 billion coming down the pipe in ore and oil revenues.

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Date: Newest first | Oldest first
what is the future of Australian dollar. Is it going to go up more
Posted by Money, 22/05/2008 9:06:23 AM

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